Recently, the machinist of the 4th China that Cai Weici of vice-chairman of Chinese mechanical Joint Industry Conference holds in our newspaper is forecasted on forum of high level of competition ability of estate company core say, although machinist job of China of second half of the year is added fast fall after a rise of month by month, but predicting annual each economic norms will innovate again tall. He thinks: Macroscopical number makes clear, our country machinist job is in a better, faster development period. Cai Weici says, this year １ - on the base that mechanical in July industry increased more quickly last year, continue to maintain add situation, appeared " 3 tall (production, sale and export growth range are tall) one synchronism (benefit and manufacturing synchronism grow) " satisfactory situation. １ - the industry of industry of dimensions above machinery that finish will raise a cost in July 3350. 700 million yuan, than going up growth of year of the corresponding period 27. 41 ％ ; The gross value of industrial output that finish (changeless price) thirteen thousand eight hundred and eighteen. 5.3 billion yuan, than going up growth of year of the corresponding period 33. 43 ％ (present price production value thirteen thousand six hundred and eight. 7.3 billion yuan, grow 33. 6 ％ ) . １ - mechanical in July industry in 122 kinds of main product, grow compared to the same period have 111 kinds, 90 what hold product breed number. 98 ％ , growth has 94 kinds in the product of two digit above, occupy the 77 ％ of breed gross. １ - total of export of mechanical in July product is amounted to 312. 1.3 billion dollar, grow 46 compared to the same period. 5 ％ ; Company of countrywide machinist estate realizes gain 831. 4.7 billion yuan, grow 74 compared to the same period. 5 ％ . Cai Weici thinks, aid of current machinist already runs be pregnant to also have concern, happy is the factor that not rare benefit grows continuously at the industry, second contradiction highlights the depth that of care is development of industry of machinery of a few influences increasingly. - - the demand of national major project that with generating electricity equipment is a delegate is driving, the environment that great technology equipment develops is improving stage by stage. Generated electricity last year equipment crop was achieved 2120 record-breaking. 840 thousand kilowatt, than going up year grew 58. 3 ％ ; This year １ - accumulative total will achieve yield in July 1676. 390 thousand kilowatt, grow 67 again compared to the same period on the base that high speed increased last year. 6 ％ , annual crop hopeful achieves the history again top level. According to forecasting, "915 " during will year all add newly generate electricity equipment outfit machine makes an appointment with 30 million kilowatt, hind 10 years will year all add newly generate electricity equipment outfit machine is made an appointment with 32 million - 36 million kilowatt, cardinal principle of level of this one demand is compared " 95 " double even much. Equipment of other and great technology is in " 915 " and even there also is huge market demand before 2020. Accordingly, support great technology equipment to continue to maintain the market requirement that increases rate period, higher is existence longer. - - the auto industry that is a delegate with the car continues to prop up entire industry to develop quickly. The production value of automobile industry already occupied the nearly 40 ％ of gross of mechanical entire industry last year, profit tax already exceeded 40 ％ , was to achieve 61 ％ more to the contributive rate of increase part of entire industry profit. Since this year, automobile industry continued to maintain high speed growth, １ - accumulative total of total in July production value is amounted to 5062. 8.5 billion yuan, 37 what hold total production value of mechanical entire industry. 2 ％ ; Implementation profit is amounted to 447. 4.6 billion yuan, 53 what take gross profit of mechanical entire industry. 82 ％ ; １ - the car output July already was equivalent to last year the crop of annual. The growth that the auto industry that is a delegate with the car will maintain quite long in our country period, this is the consensus of most expert. From long-term look, auto industry will make the engine that leads entire industry to grow continuously. - - civilian battalion and microeconomic warm up ceaselessly, already became the factor that prompts market demand growth to cannot be ignored. Since this year, volume of grab produce and sale rises considerably, one of main reasons are private buy a quantity to jump. According to estimation, private now buy scale to already raised the 70 ％ above this year by the 50 ％ last year. Before grab already was mixed some year wheaten combine harvester is same, those who became a specialist earn money machine. Heavy-duty and mechanical industry the task is full this year as steely as civilian battalion also company grows flourishingly, order goods soaring setting is not divided. Divide this beyond, the user of numerical control machine tool also is producing satisfactory change, because civilian battalion enterprise pays close attention to the performance/price ratio of the product more, so they already made machine tool of homebred numerical control buy large family. These change equip to machinist job the development henceforth has kind of product far-reaching meaning. - - capital structure diversity strengthened machinist line of business apparently the ability of meet an emergency to the market, but with state-owned large and medium-sized the development state of affairs of the major equipment manufacturing industry that the enterprise gives priority to is endless and hopeful. At present civilian battalion is mixed 3 endowment the enterprise already held big head in the gross of industry sales revenue, profit more already held great majority. １ - mechanical in July industry is state-owned reach state-owned accuse a company product sales revenue for 2729. 500 million yuan; Sales revenue of product of civilian battalion company is 5567. 200 million yuan; 3 endowment company product sales revenue is 458.1 billion yuan; All sorts of economic composition place occupy scale cardinal principle to be 21 ∶ 42 ∶ 36. １ - state-owned in July reach state-owned accuse an enterprise to realize gain 66. 8.9 billion yuan, civilian battalion enterprise realizes gain 301. 200 million yuan, 3 endowment the enterprise realizes gain 233. 3.3 billion yuan, all sorts of economic composition place occupy the cardinal principle outside scale to be １ ∶ 5 ∶ 4. Civilian battalion enterprise already was in small small-sized bearing, low-pressure electric equipment, autocycle, medium a replacement of low-pressure pump valve, car, civil appearance (water meter, kilowatt-hour meter, gas meter) wait for more and more industries to have an advantage. The sense that diversity of structure of machinist industry capital develops to the industry and influence are very far-reaching. Because civilian battalion is mixed 3 endowment the enterprise has the inherent instinct that gets used to market economy, its amount already held the big head in mechanical industry gross, so the immanent vigor of main body of the market in mechanical now industry already increased greatly, the ability that because this is complete,the industry answers vicissitude of the market is far also relatively rose in the past. But also want to see at the same time, since entering a life, foreign capital already increased the strength that enters field of Chinese machinist job apparently. In the spring tide that enters quickly in foreign capital, they are in from 80 time " joint-stock " , of 90 time " accuse " to present " solely invested " change; As a child dimensions to large-scale change; To production from cheap product high-grade product transforms. Here the situation falls, foreign capital business is own to me industry especially the pressure that major equipment manufacturing industry creates is greater and greater; And civilian battalion enterprise accepts actual strength restriction, or because be opposite its return rate is dissatisfactory, at present majority still enters major equipment manufacturing industry innocently. Accordingly, in the general trends that grows in high speed of entire industry gross, with state-owned large and medium-sized it is difficult that the enterprise is the major equipment manufacturing industry that support very big still, development state of affairs is endless and hopeful, should cause each square height attention. - - drove exit to grow quickly already into the world, also lowered the threshold of the entrance at the same time; Because import growth is rapidder, equip adverse balance of trade still resides kind of mechanical product imports and exports not to fall high. １ - total of export of mechanical in July product is amounted to 312. 1.3 billion dollar, add ぃ to stand tall and upright compared to the same period bite does  carry attentively of  of instruct of smile of Chan of ィ  coil to I hope does ＃ of Tong of Ao of head of archives of De Yi  protect  of  Fen salary to block Zheng of the She nationality of Du of Mi of  square  to carry Bo to bite does  stand tall and upright does  of  of waterlogged  of fragrance to shirk still grow permanent teeth ぃ is carried carry? - - the structural adjustment of industry oneself is successful, but still cannot satisfy the need that competes with international person of the same trade. In recent years, entire industry new product develops speed to accelerate, increase apparently to the contribution of machinist job: This year １ - will achieve new product production value in July 2783. 300 million yuan, grow 50 compared to the same period. 5 ％ , gross value of industrial output of outclass entire industry (present price) grow 33. The speed of 6 ％ . The proportion that new product production value holds gross value of industrial output by last year 18 of the corresponding period. 43 ％ rises 20 present. 45 ％ . From growth speed looks, 7 month held the head from beginning to end this year high speed grows: Will be in Feburary 66. 95 ％ ; Will be in March 64. 45 ％ ; Will be in April 58. 45 ％ ; Will be 55 ％ in May; Will be in June 52. 54 ％ ; Will be in July 50. 5 ％ , all the growth level that prep above was the same as a month last year. "85 " , " 95 " since the rate that rolls out new product through the enterprise of technical reformation is rapidder, showed ability of stronger market meet an emergency. - - be based on specialization phenomenon of region industry assemble saves city to developing littoral in the part, become the another impetus that promotes mechanical industry standard and competition ability to rise. Quite since a period, product of valve of the low-pressure electric equipment of district of Zhejiang lukewarm city, pump, bearing of the mould of peaceful wave area, miniature, electric machinery of horsepower of the camera of Pearl River delta, cent, and the small-sized diesel engine of Jiangsu, Shandong, already more and more the mechanical industry distinguishing feature that becomes these areas, factory of cooperation of component of relevant form a complete set, craft builds up in great quantities, division of labor is finer and finer, the product is done more jump over essence of life, the service is more and more convenient, overall the enterprise is increasing also, cost is lower and lower, it is easier and easier to change, scale of production is bigger and bigger, overall promote each other with component enterprise, formed a kind of benign and interactive concern, small product made big market. Afore-mentioned areas already exceeded one billion four hundred and ten million and sixty-five thousand four hundred and eight yuan about the total sales majority of characteristic product, already by earlier " primitive accumulation " enter the most pleasant stage stage by stage, formed apparent prep above the industrial competition ability of other area, already was in not less extend an international market with powerful momentum. More and more personages had realised, our region is bred below the premise that follows market rule the industrial assemble effect of specific and mechanical product, be machinist job of play our country compare a dominant position, make the way of a hope that makes strong mechanical industry greatly. Walk along the judgement of situation to mechanical henceforth industry, cai Weici thinks to consider the factor that be as follows even: The first, the influence of SARS. SARS epidemic situation is versed in to machinery the economy this year runs line of business the influence after having a few sluggish, but overall for the impact is very not big. The 2nd, import addition influence. The entrance increases export of fast prep above, inlet pressure has add without decrease: １ - total of import of mechanical in July product is amounted to 526. 4.7 billion dollar, grow 55 compared to the same period. １ ％ , prep above exit is added fast, adverse balance of trade of imports and exports is amounted to 214. 3.4 billion dollar. The acceleration of the accretion of inlet pressure and foreign capital is entered, make the market competes more hasten is intense, inside endowment the development environment of machinist job is increasingly austere. The 3rd, the influence that rolled steel rises in price. What the to rolled steel safeguard measure that our country implements since last year already fathered to affect machinist trade again is normal move. Because machinist job is the big user of rolled steel, the proportion that rolled steel bad news holds mechanical product cost with capital is very large, wave motion of rolled steel price fathers to affecting machinist trade again move. If this one problem cannot be solved in time, produce the beneficial result to machinist job certain and negative effect. The 4th, national policy adjusts the influence that runs an environment to economy. Recently, economic bound and academic group are right economy whether the problem of overheat is undertaking enthusiastic delibrate. The country moves problem of medium a few tendentiousness in the light of macroscopical economy about the branch, already made in succession a few make known one's position, published policy of a few adjusting control. These tendercy can are opposite undoubtedly the economy of machinist job runs generation major effect, we should take seriously highly and be adjusted in time and improve working arrangement. The 5th, increase the influence of base high last year. The annual last year goes situation it is the beginning of the year relatively inferior, month by month rises after, to achieve when the end of the year in last few years rare perch; Now year because starting point of the beginning of the year is higher, below normal circumstance, with photograph of the corresponding period was compared last year also hard to avoid appears add fast before tall hind small state, the adverse effect of SARS, will make the trend of fall after a rise of this one month by month more remarkable. Cai Weici analysis says, the element of integrated above many sided, predicting annual the growth level that each main economic norms still is expected to reach two digit. Trade of former state classics appoint 2003 economy runs adjusting control what put forward to machinist job in compendium is following anticipate a target to be able to overfulfil completely: With go up year of photograph comparing, annual total production value (changeless price) will grow 13. 5 ％ (predict to will achieve 20 ％ above) ; Implementation profit grows 4 ％ (predict to will achieve 20 ％ above) , car output 3.8 million, grow 17. 3 ％ , among them car output will amount to 1.2 million, grow 11. １ ％ (predict to will achieve 4 million to mix respectively 1.6 million above) . In addition, although the following index was not in national classics trade appoint economy served as in compendium of moving adjusting control 2003 basically anticipate the target puts forward, but according to predicting, the course tries hard to also can achieve this year: Crop of numerical control machine tool will be amounted to 2. 80 thousand or so, generate electricity equipment crop will amount to left and right sides of 25 million kilowatt, a batch of major whole set of equipment and new product development obtain a breakthrough, the contributive rate that new product increases to machinist job will amount to 35 ％ above. Cai Weici reminds finally, although machinist job is mixed this year,will comparative henceforth the development momentum that a paragraph of period will still maintain faster, but what must point out is, the mechanical industry of our country is big and not strong, the state with not high quality still does not have fundamental change, the capability that each respect needs contented countryman economy is very insufficient still. Rigid business must be prepared for danger in times of safety, improve oneself quality hard.

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